A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
